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Path To Plymouth

By Craig Peterson, 02/03/20, 5:45PM EST

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Way Too Early Playoff Predictions And New Postseason Format

It’s February. Which means at the end of this month, 139 teams will embark on a playoff run where only three can end their season with a victory at USA Hockey Arena. Matchups for the first round of the playoffs were finalized last week and all 24 Regionals have been announced HERE. While we still have three weeks of the regular season left — and I’ll be doing a much more in-depth dive into playoff predictions, bracketology and much more the closer we get to the end of the month — I do have some instant reactions worth sharing.

 

New Playoff Format

For the first time, the playoff format has been extended to three weeks. opening-round games begin Monday, February 24th, with the State Finals concluding on Saturday, March 14th. 

In past years, teams making a championship run could play as many as six games in just 12 days in order to hunt down a State Title; unlike any other stretch at any point of the season. Prolonging the playoffs an extra seven days now allows the new postseason format to emulate regular-season play, affording all participants better travel, prep and rest time to compete at their very best when the stage is at its biggest. 

Winners of second-round matchups will have at minimum five days to prepare for their respective Regional Finals, of which all 24 games will be played on Wednesday, March 4th. I am anticipating that day to become one of the single most exciting days in MI-HS moving forward. Games with extremely high stakes, hardware on the line, plenty of time for coaches to strategize and analyze opponents, all taking place within moments of each other? We’ll see the best teams in action, fully prepared, well rested and firing on all cylinders. 

 

Plant The SeedING

One of the hottest of hot-button topics in MI-HS. Has been for years and will continue to be until there’s some resolution. Everyone I talk to has their own form of playoff structure or seeding formula that they feel would work best, yet with each passing year, the current model remains. The MHSAA’s recent unveiling of the Michigan Power Rankings (MPR) is a great step towards seeding and making the regular season have some meaning when it comes to the playoffs. 

The MPR has no effect on the 2019-20 season but this year’s test run with the system — which values team record, opponent’s record and opponent’s opponent’s record — by my estimation, seems to be a pretty good measure of success. Personally, I still lean in favor of MyHockeyRankings as the most accurate when ranking teams but that’s just the opinion of one man. The MHSAA will understandably want to have control over whichever ranking system is utilized. The fact that there is any ranking system in place moving forward is a significant step and at least opens the door to some form of seeding in the future whether it be at the Regional Playoffs and State Tournaments, at the Final Four or in any other fashion.

 

Regions And Divisions

Question: Why do we have three divisions? There are three Regions with just four teams total. Eight Regions with just five teams and seven Regions with just six teams. Winning a Regional should mean something and should be an amazing accomplishment. When there’s 36 teams in the field who have to win just two games to claim a championship, seems a bit inflated to me. Hey, if I’m wrong, feel free to tell me about it but I’d much rather see full Regions of eight or 10 teams battling it out for a Wooden Mitten.

MI-HS has 139 teams competing in the 2019-20 season and divvies them up into three Divisions based on school enrollment. As a reference point, Minnesota has 149 teams competing and only two Divisions. I’m not saying they’ve got it right and we’ve got it wrong but MI-HS went from two divisions (Class A and Class B-C-D) in 2000 when there were 155 programs in the state of Michigan. That number peaked in 2006-07 with 180 teams but has steadily decreased almost every season since then to well below that 155-team mark that pushed the expansion to three Divisions. 

Time to downsize? I think it could help solve a lot of playoff problems, especially as we inch closer to seeding. Makes way more sense to rank 8-10 teams in a Region than 4-5 teams. Would also bring strength back to Division-I, as I imagine MI-HS powers like Livonia Stevenson, Brother Rice, Hartland and Forest Hills Northern-Eastern, among others would be bumped to the top Division or potentially opt up.

 

Early Playoff Picks

I’m not ready to unveil Petey’s Playoff Picks just yet. We’ve got a couple more weeks and I’ll let those predictions simmer for a little bit longer before we start that discussion. But in the meantime, I do have confidence picks! One team from each Region that I believe will win a Wooden Mitten and advance to the State Tournament, in order of most confident (No. 1) to least confident (No. 8) broken down by Division.

REGIONAL CHAMPION POWER RANKINGS

RANK

DIVISION-I

DIVISION-II

DIVISION-III

1

Detroit Catholic Central

Hartland

Grosse Pointe South

2

Saginaw Heritage

Traverse City Central

Midland Dow

3

Capital City

Marquette

Grand Rapids Catholic Central

4

Salem

Brother Rice

Calumet

5

Macomb Dakota

Port Huron Northern

Cranbrook

6

Bay Reps

Livonia Stevenson

Riverview Gabriel Richard

7

Brighton

Forest Hills Northern-Eastern

Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

8

Byron Center

Trenton

Gaylord

 

Initial thoughts… D-II is loaded again and probably the toughest of the three to win, with Division-III not far behind and then D-I bringing up the rear. I think D-III has some phenomenal teams in the running and should be very exciting, and even though I have D-I as the weakest of the three, it is much stronger this year than it has been in previous years.

My way too early Division-I Final Four is as follows...

Bay Reps

 

Heritage

<<<

Heritage

vs.

 

vs.

 

vs.

DCC

>>>

DCC

 

Dakota

 

…I’ve got a rematch of the 2019 State Final with the Shamrocks and Hawks squaring off in the finale, and DCC winning its 12th Division-I State Championship. 

My way too early Division-II Final Four is as follows...

Hartland

 

Brother Rice

<<<

Brother Rice

vs.

 

vs.

 

vs.

Stevenson

>>>

Stevenson

 

Marquette

 

...I’m taking Rice to win its first D-II State Title since 2017 in what would be its third in six seasons and second over Stevenson in that stretch.

My way too early Division-III Final Four is as follows…

Riverview Gabriel Richard

 

Calumet

<<<

Calumet

vs.

 

vs.

 

vs.

GRCC

>>>

GRCC

 

Grosse Pointe South

 

...Going with Calumet surviving one of the toughest playoff roads of 2020 and capping off a fantastic run for an extremely talented squad. 

Still plenty of hockey left to play and a lot could change in three weeks, so let’s finish the regular season strong and I’ll see you right here with complete playoff analysis, picks and bracketology at the end of the month! Want to jumpstart the conversation? Connect with me on Twitter